OTTAWA — Facing new questions about his political longevity, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed resolve after a by-election loss Monday in one of the safest Liberal seats in the country.
“This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations,” he said of his party's results in Toronto-St. Paul's riding. “My focus is on your success and that's where it's going to stay.”
The political upset, even though it involves just one electoral district, has ignited fierce speculation in Canada about whether Trudeau can continue leading his party in the face of a country hungry for change.
Trudeau’s minority government is badly trailing the Opposition Conservatives in the polls, and has eaten their dust for the past year with numbers that spell electoral blowout.
Just last week, Trudeau said in an interview on national television that “Canadians are not in a decision mode right now” and dismissed the bad numbers. "What you tell a pollster, if they ever manage to reach you, is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign," he said.
Trudeau is running out of runway for a comeback. Since he began plummeting in the polls, everything he has tried has failed, from changing up his spokespeople to big tax-and-spend budgets.
He has roughly a year until the next election is expected, but one could happen sooner if he chooses, or enough parties in Parliament push for one.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is among a group of senior Liberals rumored to have aspirations to succeed Trudeau, rushed to the prime minister’s defense Tuesday, saying he can remain on as party leader despite the loss.
“The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support,” she said.
Freeland’s close friend and former chief of staff, Leslie Church, lost a close by-election Monday in an urban Toronto district Trudeau’s Liberals had held by a wide margin for three decades, through thick and thin.
The race was called to replace a stalwart Cabinet minister who Trudeau appointed to a diplomatic posting in Denmark.
Some commentators have compared the results to a hypothetical in which the Democrats lose a seat in central Los Angeles to the Republicans.
The sobering loss comes amid an affordability crisis, one not unique to Canada, that is punishing voters at the grocery stores and dashing many Canadians’ dreams of homeownership. The government has also struggled in its response to the war in Gaza and a rise in hate crimes against Jewish people.
The seismic political event is widely expected to loosen tongues within the party, where there is quiet chatter about leadership but so far no knives or harsh words in public.
Other potential names in the running to replace Trudeau include Mark Carney, a former central banker in Canada and the UK, and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly.
Freeland and Trudeau shared their disappointment publicly in the wake of the drubbing, and acknowledged Canadians feel financially squeezed amid the cost-of-living crisis.
“We know that Canadians are hurting right now, and we know that we have to work hard to win back their trust,” she told reporters.
More surprise bad news whipsawed Trudeau’s Liberals Tuesday. Canada’s latest inflation numbers came in worse than expected as the country struggles to beat back inflation, dealing a fresh blow by showing rising rent and food prices.
The figures throw up a potential roadblock for the central bank, which had just started slashing rates — the first among G7 countries to start cutting.
“No bones about it, this is not what the Bank of Canada wanted to see at this point, and clearly shaves the odds of a follow-up July rate cut,” wrote Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Douglas Porter in an analysis.
That’s a problem for the Liberals, who want to see rates come down fast and bring the cost of living and mortgage rates along with them.
Most Canadian mortgages are on terms of five years or less, and Canadians are currently going through a cycle of renewals locking homeowners in at much higher rates — pain that will be hard to forget at the ballot box.
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