Biden administration officials increasingly doubt that Israel and Hamas will reach a comprehensive cease-fire deal under the current framework, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the negotiations.
The deal, if agreed, is supposed to unfold in three phases. Phase 1 pauses fighting for six weeks, allowing for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the populated areas of Gaza, the release of hostages and the freeing of Palestinian prisoners. In the second phase, Israel and Hamas are supposed to try to negotiate an end to all hostilities and the release of the remaining hostages. Reconstruction of Gaza would take place in Phase 3.
Israel and Hamas generally agree to the conditions stipulated under Phase 1 but they are at odds over how to officially end the war, according to two of the officials, who, like the others, were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive negotiations. Despite initial optimism about the deal, officials now believe those disagreements could upend the entire pact.
Phase 2 is “the sticking point,” one of the officials said. “If Phase 1 could’ve been done in a vacuum, we would’ve done it by now.”
Hamas wants Israel to agree to a full withdrawal from Gaza. But Israeli officials have said they will not agree to completely pull back from the enclave until its forces have fully dismantled Hamas — a goal that could take months if not years to achieve.
Hamas will not sign off on any part of the deal — even an initial cease-fire — until Israel agrees to its demands. In effect, Hamas has given an all-or-nothing ultimatum that Israel is unlikely to approve. Neither side shows signs that it is willing to compromise, worrying Biden officials that the fighting will last for months longer.
“I think this is going to go on until at least the end of 2024,” one of the officials said.
The National Security Council declined to comment. The Israeli embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“There’s an agreement that there would be continued negotiations at the end of six weeks. At least we would have had a cease-fire. At least we would have had a halt to the suffering,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters in a briefing June 13. “Now, there’ll be continued haggling and a delay in the cease-fire, and that’s what we were disappointed in.”
The situation has frustrated humanitarian groups, many of whom have been briefed by the administration on the current state of negotiations and say they cannot effectively help Gazans without a pause in fighting. An armistice is the only way to ensure people on the ground have consistent access to food and much needed medical aid.
“The administration is pushing hard for both Israel and Hamas to agree to the deal,” a representative from one of the major aid groups working in Gaza said. “But everything seems on hold for the moment.”
Since the beginning of the year, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly skeptical about finding a way to swiftly end the war. The goal has been to get Israel and Hamas to — at the very least — agree to the initial six-week cease-fire that could allow for the release of dozens of hostages taken by the militant group in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel and offer better conditions for the distribution of aid in Gaza, thwarting a potential famine.
U.S. officials calculated that even if Hamas and Israel reached an initial short-term cease-fire deal, there was a high possibility it would break down. Cease-fires have a history of falling apart in Gaza during wartime and both sides are steadfast in their conditions for ending the war under Phase 2 of the deal.
The Biden administration has spent the last several weeks trying to broker an agreement between Israel and Hamas. Top officials have traveled to Israel and Doha in an attempt to find a resolution. They are now publicly blaming Hamas for creating obstacles to peace.
Hamas submitted changes to the three-phase deal. Some of those amendments are potentially admissible, U.S. officials have said. Some are not.
Officials have not detailed what, specifically, Israel has agreed to and how Hamas wants to alter the details of the deal currently on the table. But officials are not optimistic the two sides will be able to quickly resolve their differences.
“No one is confident this deal is going to move forward in the way the administration had hoped,” said one of the officials, who was briefed by the White House about the state of the cease-fire negotiations. “There are so many unknowns.”
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